The S&P 500 is on track for 32% to 35% earnings growth this year, mostly driven by AI investments from big tech. Analysts expect that growth rate to drop to about 15% next year. AI capital expenditures are still projected to increase from $800 billion this year to $1.1 trillion next year, but the overall growth rate is slowing down. This slower pace means tougher year-over-year comparisons. Also, the massive spending from this year will start showing up as higher depreciation costs on income statements, which will cut into future earnings. Valuations are running high right now. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is over 40.5, putting it near dot-com bubble levels. Since a lot of this year's earnings growth is already priced in, any misses next year could trigger a sell-off.