MP Materials is up nearly 250% this year, significantly beating the market. However, the stock has stalled recently as trade tensions between the US and China cooled off temporarily. The article argues that USA Rare Earth (USAR) might offer better returns over the next year. USAR is only up about 25% and is trailing MP. The main point is that MP already has a partnership with the Department of Defense, so that catalyst is likely priced into the stock. USAR is pre-revenue and riskier, but they are potentially in line for their own DoD partnership. If they secure funding or contracts in 2026 to help scale operations, the stock could see a significant rally. Basically, MP is the play that already made its move, while USAR is a speculative play waiting for government backing.