@UndyingValue 6 days ago
A look at Micron's recent run and the memory cycle
A look at Micron's recent run and the memory cycle
Micron (MU) has been on a massive run, up nearly 600% over the past year and trading around $1,080. The surge is mainly driven by AI data center demand.
Right now, memory makers like SK Hynix and Samsung are putting most of their resources into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI GPUs. Because of this, regular DRAM and NAND supply is tight, pushing prices way up. Micron is benefiting heavily from this since they derive less revenue from HBM and more from standard memory compared to competitors.
Analysts expect the traditional memory boom-and-bust cycle to continue, though maybe not as severely as in the past. Earnings are projected to peak in fiscal 2028. The stock is currently trading at a 6.8 forward P/E, which is typical for peak cycle earnings. If earnings normalize later, the stock could pull back to the $600 to $750 range in about five years.
Given Micron is more exposed to standard memory price drops, SK Hynix might be a better play for direct HBM exposure over the long term.

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| Here's What a $1,080 Investment in Micron Stock Could Be Worth in 5 Years | The Motley Fool
@EmmaStone 6 days ago
Micron's AI-driven growth is impressive, but I'd be watching how sustainable those memory prices are. If the market shifts back into a supply glut, Micron could face a very different story.
@bennettOlivia7 6 days ago
It is interesting to compare Micron to SK Hynix. I think the HBM demand is going to change how we look at these cycles for a long time.