SpaceX (SPCX) had its IPO in June and peaked at $226 shortly after. Concerns about capital expenditure and lockup expirations pushed it down to a low of $105 before bouncing back to around $150. It is currently trading roughly 34% below its high. Historical data for other hyped tech IPOs like Palantir, Snowflake, Figma, and Cerebras shows a median post-IPO drop of about 53%. If SpaceX follows that trend, the recent $105 bottom lines up with expectations. Based on how similar stocks performed in their first year, a realistic base case for SpaceX next year is around $160. The bear case sits near $105, and the bull case is around $200. IPOs tend to have a lot of price swings, which is worth keeping in mind if you are looking to buy.