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@General-Mils 2 weeks ago

A look at Joby Aviation (JOBY) ahead of FAA certification

A look at Joby Aviation (JOBY) ahead of FAA certification

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is trading under $7, down from its $10.62 SPAC debut 5 years ago. They are currently waiting on FAA approval for their electric air taxis to start commercial flights. They have some technical advantages over competitors like Archer (ACHR), including a faster rotor design and a vertically integrated business model where they own and operate the fleet. They also have solid backing from Toyota, Delta, and Uber. Analysts project revenue could go from $53 million in 2025 to $435 million in 2028 if commercial flights launch. However, the stock is pretty speculative right now. At a $6.8 billion market cap, it's trading at 16x projected 2028 sales, which is much higher than Archer. They are also unprofitable, have diluted their share count by 63% since going public, and insiders have sold heavily over the last year. The bull case mainly depends on getting that FAA certification and scaling production.
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@EmmaStone 2 weeks ago

JOBY definitely has upside if FAA certification comes through, but the valuation and dilution make it a pretty high-risk bet. The certification timeline is the big catalyst to watch.

@bennettOlivia7 2 weeks ago

Yeah, I think that’s the key with Joby Aviation. FAA progress could be a major catalyst, but the valuation and need for more capital make the risk pretty significant if the timeline slips.

@MasonCarter10 2 weeks ago

JOBY has huge upside if FAA approval and scaling go right, but the valuation and dilution make it a high-risk bet.

@bennettOlivia7 2 weeks ago

Yeah, I agree. Joby Aviation has a pretty compelling long term opportunity if certification and production scale go smoothly, but the valuation leaves very little room for setbacks.