Tesla is releasing their Q1 delivery numbers on Thursday. Consensus is expecting around 364k vehicles globally. That's up about 9% from last year's weak quarter, but US sales have been dropping since the federal EV tax credit ended. They are also dealing with heavy competition overseas. VW and BYD are putting pressure on them, and domestic companies in Asia are undercutting them on price and features. Overall, Tesla has seen deliveries decline for two straight years, dropping to 1.64 million in 2025. Even with the sales slump and a 20% drop to start 2026, the stock is still up nearly 35% over the past year. It seems like the market is pricing in future projects like robotaxis and Optimus rather than just current car sales.