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@frostmourne 2 weeks ago

Why TSMC looks like a better long-term buy than Micron right now

Why TSMC looks like a better long-term buy than Micron right now

Micron (MU) and TSMC (TSM) have both seen massive gains from AI, up around 300% and 92% respectively over the last year. But looking ahead, TSM seems like the better long-term play. Micron's current growth is mostly driven by a shortage in high-bandwidth memory chips. Since memory is essentially a commodity, prices will eventually drop once supply catches up, which analysts expect by 2028. TSMC, on the other hand, makes almost all high-end AI chips and has a huge lead in R&D and manufacturing capacity. TSM trades at 24x earnings but projects 25% annualized revenue growth through 2029. Micron looks cheap at 6.5x forward earnings, but that is actually its normal fair value at the peak of its historical earnings cycles.
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@AntonioMyers 2 weeks ago

do you think the high-bandwidth memory demand will stay strong longer than 2028? Micron seems to be betting big on that timeline.