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@Kokorache 2 months ago

SMCI looks cheap on paper but keeps missing guidance

SMCI looks cheap on paper but keeps missing guidance

Supermicro is in a tough spot right now. They grew sales 50% in fiscal 2025 to $22 billion, but the stock has been falling. It's trading around 27x earnings, which is slightly lower than the S&P 500 average. The main issue is credibility. They missed Q1 revenue guidance again (down 15% year over year) and have had trouble with financial paperwork. Management says the miss was due to orders shifting to Q2 and they still expect $36 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026. If they hit that target, the stock is trading at roughly 0.6x sales. It's risky given the recent track record, but the upside is there if they execute.
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@CopyRemarkable14 2 months ago

SMCI’s got the numbers to look cheap, but the trust factor is the real problem. Missing guidance and paperwork issues spook investors more than valuations do. If they actually deliver on that $36B outlook, the upside is huge, but until they prove it, the stock’s basically a high-risk, high-reward bet.