CMGChipotle Mexican Grill

Hunch Buying techniques on the highest percentages will actually loose.  $NFLX $CMG $NKE $TTD $TSLA $IRDM $ACHR $RR $SPY $GDLC $SNPS $NVDA $TGT $FTNT $PLUG $PATH   $MRNA  These are the stocks that right now , which i see based on certain factors, fundamentals and technical prices can be  a ideal investment. 

Portfolio Snapshot – Strategy & Rationale

This portfolio avoids chasing short-term percentage gainers. Positions are built around durable leaders, selective growth, and asymmetric technology bets, with controlled exposure to mega-caps.

Core / Quality Tilt (not over-weighted):

• NFLX, CMG, NKE – Proven execution, pricing power, brand durability

• SNPS, NVDA – Infrastructure beneficiaries of long-cycle AI adoption

• SPY – Market baseline, volatility buffer

Growth & Tech Expansion:

• TTD, FTNT, IRDM – Scalable platforms with recurring revenue and niche dominance

• TSLA – Optionality across energy, autonomy, and manufacturing efficiency

Asymmetric / Emerging Tech:

• ACHR, Richtech Robotics (RR), PLUG, PATH – Early-stage or turnaround plays where downside is defined but upside is non-linear

Thematic / Diversifiers:

• MRNA – Platform biotech with pipeline optionality

• TGT – Cyclical recovery with valuation support

• GDLC – Digital asset exposure without single-coin risk

This is for informational purposes only. Always perform thorough research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions. Consider revising it with your own advisors based on life events.

 Investments carry risks, and you may lose value, including your principal investment or your investment might become zero.

$CMG just reported Q3 revenue of around $3.00 billion, which is up around 7.5% year-on-year, but it is still below the expectations which were around $3.06 billion. The EPS matched the expectations, but the company found out a key issue that the younger customers (ages 25-34 who have income less than $100K) are visiting less and are instead eating at home more. This caused the share price to drop by almost 17%.

First of, do people still eat $CMG ?

My Thoughts:

Chipotle’s still got a solid business model. The brand is strong, margins are good, and the Chipotlanes + digital sales (about 36%) are solid drivers. ROIC is impressive too. 

That said, demand has cooled off lately, this is the second quarter in a row with negative same-store sales. People seem to be spending less, and management is now expecting 2025 to be pretty flat. 

Stock buybacks are happening, which is nice, but at these high valuation levels, they don’t really add a safety cushion; they’re mostly just keeping dilution in check.

What I Think It’s Worth:

I’m being a bit cautious in my assumptions: slow sales growth for a bit, some margin pressure, and a bit of a valuation pullback. That still gets me to about 14% earnings growth. Using a PE of 32 and a 10% discount rate, I land at a fair value around $46, basically where the stock is trading now.

What I’m Doing:

I like the company a lot, but I’m not ready to jump in at this price. There’s just not enough wiggle room if things go sideways. For now, I’ll keep an eye on it and wait for a better entry point.

Based on today's chart this may be a hot take, but I really like $CMG . Prices are comparable to places like $MCD but food is much higher quality, healthier. and tastes better.

If they start paying a dividend, I'm buying right away